SimpleFunctions

Anthropic · Who will IPO

Anthropic is priced at 69¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 68¢ bid, 73¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Who will IPO.

Price history

69¢ current

+8¢
50¢75¢
Apr 20, 2026May 21, 2026

Contract brief

If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Anthropic

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

SpaceX 96¢

Range

4¢-96¢

Family volume

$30K

Identifier

KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC

May 21, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 17m ago

Implied probability

69¢
Latest venue quote
May 21, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 17m ago

Bid

68¢

Ask

73¢

Spread

24h volume

$2K

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · Who will IPO

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$30K

Orderbook snapshot

68 / 73¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
68¢45
67¢1.0K
64¢3
63¢3
62¢31
AskSize
73¢34
74¢148
75¢9.4K
76¢5
77¢1.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC

SF Signal
SF Index
329.29
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

76.3%

IY (No)

344.5%

Adj IY

329%

CRI

2

RV

211%

VR

2.41

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

medium

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

76.3%
344.5%
Adj IY
329%
2
RV
211%
VR
2.41
IAR
0.4/h
Overround
5.2%
LAS
0.04

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.